Chemical Recycling Can Boost European Plastic Circularity to 80% by 2030

Why It Matters

This insight highlights the critical role of advanced recycling technologies in addressing the growing challenge of plastic waste. For designers and engineers, it underscores the need to consider the end-of-life phase and the potential for material circularity when developing new products and systems.

Key Finding

By 2030, a combination of mechanical and chemical recycling could see Europe recycling between 73% and 80% of its plastic waste. Chemical recycling is crucial for achieving higher plastic-to-plastic recycling rates and for producing valuable chemical feedstocks, thereby supporting recycled content targets.

Key Findings

• The integration of mechanical and chemical recycling could increase the overall plastic recycling rate to 73-80% by 2030.
• The highest achievable plastic-to-plastic recycling rate, combining mechanical and chemical methods, is estimated at 61%.
• Chemical recycling can contribute significantly to achieving recycled content targets, with plastic-to-plastic recycling from CR estimated at 15-38% and plastic-to-chemicals at 19-35% in optimistic scenarios.
• Mechanical recycling alone, even with improvements, has a lower ceiling for plastic-to-plastic recycling compared to combined approaches.

Research Evidence

Aim: To quantify the potential contribution of chemical recycling technologies to plastic waste recycling rates in Europe by 2030.

Method: Material Flow Analysis (MFA) modelling

Procedure: The study modelled the status quo of plastic waste treatment in 2018 and compared it with five future scenarios for 2030. These scenarios included improved waste collection, sorting, and mechanical recycling, as well as various implementations of chemical recycling technologies. The analysis focused on ten major polymer types across five key sectors and considered 'missing plastics' (unaccounted waste) in one scenario. Circularity indicators such as end-of-life recycling rate, plastic-to-plastic rate, plastic-to-chemicals rate, and plastic-to-fuels rate were calculated for comparison.

Context: European plastic waste management and recycling

Design Principle

Design for advanced recycling: Consider the full spectrum of recycling technologies, including chemical recycling, to ensure materials can be effectively reprocessed into high-value applications.

How to Apply

When designing plastic products, research the compatibility of chosen materials with emerging chemical recycling processes and consider how product design can facilitate efficient sorting and processing for these technologies.

Limitations

The study's projections are based on modelled scenarios and depend on the successful scaling and economic viability of chemical recycling technologies. The actual contribution may vary based on technological advancements, policy implementation, and market adoption.

Student Guide (IB Design Technology)

Simple Explanation: Chemical recycling, which breaks plastics down into their basic chemical components, can help Europe recycle much more plastic waste by 2030, potentially up to 80%, compared to just using traditional methods.

Why This Matters: Understanding the potential of different recycling methods, like chemical recycling, is crucial for designing products that are truly sustainable and contribute to a circular economy.

Critical Thinking: To what extent should designers rely on future technological advancements like chemical recycling when making material choices for current design projects, and what are the risks associated with over-reliance?

IA-Ready Paragraph: Research indicates that advanced recycling methods, such as chemical recycling, hold significant potential to increase plastic waste circularity. Studies modelling European plastic waste streams suggest that by 2030, the integration of chemical recycling alongside mechanical recycling could elevate the overall plastic recycling rate to between 73% and 80%, enabling higher percentages of plastic-to-plastic recycling and supporting recycled content targets.

Project Tips

• When researching materials for your design project, investigate their recyclability through both mechanical and chemical processes.
• Consider how your product's form and material composition might influence its suitability for advanced recycling techniques.

How to Use in IA

• Reference this study when discussing the environmental impact of material choices and the importance of designing for end-of-life scenarios in your design project's research section.

Examiner Tips

• Demonstrate an understanding of the evolving landscape of plastic recycling technologies beyond traditional mechanical methods.

Independent Variable: Implementation of chemical recycling technologies, improvements in waste collection and sorting, mechanical recycling advancements.

Dependent Variable: End-of-life recycling rate (EoL-RR), plastic-to-plastic rate, plastic-to-chemicals rate, plastic-to-fuels rate.

Controlled Variables: Polymer types, sectors considered, European region, year (2030 projections vs. 2018 status quo).

Strengths

• Utilizes a robust modelling technique (MFA) to provide quantitative insights.
• Considers multiple future scenarios, offering a range of potential outcomes.
• Differentiates between various recycling pathways (plastic-to-plastic, plastic-to-chemicals, plastic-to-fuels).

Critical Questions

• What are the energy and environmental footprints of chemical recycling compared to mechanical recycling?
• How do the economic factors and scalability of chemical recycling technologies influence their real-world contribution?

Extended Essay Application

• An Extended Essay could investigate the feasibility of implementing specific chemical recycling technologies in a local context, analyzing material flows and potential economic impacts.
• Further research could explore the design implications for specific product categories (e.g., flexible packaging) to optimize their recyclability via chemical recycling.

Source

How much can chemical recycling contribute to plastic waste recycling in Europe? An assessment using material flow analysis modeling · Resources Conservation and Recycling · 2023 · 10.1016/j.resconrec.2023.106916