Manganese Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Threaten Renewable Energy Expansion

Why It Matters

Understanding the future availability of critical materials like manganese is crucial for designers and engineers developing next-generation technologies. Proactive planning can mitigate supply chain disruptions and ensure the feasibility of sustainable energy solutions.

Key Finding

While some regions will see increased manganese production, Western nations face potential shortages driven by renewable energy demand, whereas BRICS nations are poised for secure supply. Strategic policies are needed to ensure long-term sustainability.

Key Findings

• Projected increases in manganese production in key countries like Australia, Gabon, Ghana, India, and South Africa.
• Potential shortages in Western nations due to declining extraction and rising demand for renewable energy.
• BRICS nations are likely to maintain secure manganese supply due to growing production capabilities.
• Policy recommendations include increasing product lifecycle times, reducing energy costs for recycling, and fostering peace through trade.

Research Evidence

Aim: To forecast future manganese supply and demand, identify potential shortages, and propose policy recommendations for enhanced sustainability within the energy and material sectors.

Method: Forecasting and Scenario Analysis

Procedure: A systematic review of the manganese mineral value chain was conducted, followed by data-driven production forecasts using ARIMA, Holt, and Hubbert models based on historical data from 1929-2022. Four end-member scenarios of the supply and demand system were analyzed, alongside a broad geographical analysis and policy recommendation formulation.

Context: Global natural resource economics and material supply chains, with a focus on renewable energy technologies.

Design Principle

Design for Resource Resilience: Anticipate and mitigate potential supply chain disruptions for critical materials by exploring alternatives, optimizing material usage, and designing for circularity.

How to Apply

When designing products for the renewable energy sector, conduct a thorough risk assessment of critical material supply chains, including manganese. Explore design strategies that reduce material intensity or enable the use of more readily available alternatives.

Limitations

Forecasts are subject to inherent uncertainties in future technological advancements, geopolitical stability, and global economic conditions. The study focuses on manganese and may not fully capture interdependencies with other critical materials.

Student Guide (IB Design Technology)

Simple Explanation: Manganese is super important for things like electric car batteries, but we might not have enough of it in the future because everyone wants it. Some countries will have plenty, but others might run out, which could stop new green technologies from being made. We need to be smart about how we use and recycle it.

Why This Matters: Understanding the supply and demand dynamics of key materials is essential for creating designs that are not only functional and aesthetically pleasing but also feasible and sustainable in the long term.

Critical Thinking: How might the projected manganese shortages impact the pace of the global transition to renewable energy, and what design innovations could help mitigate these impacts?

IA-Ready Paragraph: The selection of materials for this design project was informed by research indicating potential future supply chain vulnerabilities for critical commodities such as manganese (Sokolova et al., 2025). Given its essential role in renewable energy technologies and projected demand increases, coupled with geopolitical factors, a proactive approach to material sourcing and design for circularity is paramount to ensure long-term product viability and sustainability.

Project Tips

• When researching materials for your design project, look beyond just their properties and consider their long-term availability and the geopolitical factors affecting their supply.
• If your project relies on a critical material, explore strategies for material reduction, substitution, or enhanced recyclability.

How to Use in IA

• Reference this study when discussing the material selection process for your design project, particularly if it involves materials identified as critical or facing supply chain risks.
• Use the findings to justify design decisions related to material efficiency, recyclability, or the exploration of alternative materials.

Examiner Tips

• Demonstrate an understanding of the broader context of material sourcing, including ethical considerations and supply chain vulnerabilities, not just material properties.
• Justify material choices by referencing research on availability, sustainability, and potential future risks.

Independent Variable: Factors influencing manganese supply and demand (e.g., technological advancements in renewables, geopolitical stability, extraction rates).

Dependent Variable: Manganese production forecasts, potential supply shortages, market price fluctuations.

Controlled Variables: Historical production data, established forecasting models (ARIMA, Holt, Hubbert), geographical production capacities.

Strengths

• Utilizes multiple forecasting models for robust predictions.
• Provides a comprehensive analysis of the mineral value chain and geographical distribution.
• Offers actionable policy and strategic recommendations.

Critical Questions

• To what extent can material substitution or technological innovation in recycling offset projected manganese shortages?
• How do the identified geopolitical risks specifically threaten manganese supply chains, and what are the implications for international trade policies?

Extended Essay Application

• Investigate the supply chain of a critical material essential for a proposed sustainable technology, analyzing future availability and proposing design strategies to address potential scarcity.
• Develop a scenario-based analysis of material availability for a specific product category, considering environmental and geopolitical factors.

Source

From abundant resource to critical commodity: Forecasting manganese supply and assessing its sustainability · Sustainable materials and technologies · 2025 · 10.1016/j.susmat.2025.e01349