Steel Decarbonisation Roadmaps Fall Short of Net-Zero by 2050, Highlighting Critical Resource Gaps

Why It Matters

This insight is crucial for designers and engineers involved in product development and manufacturing. It highlights that the fundamental materials and energy sources required for a sustainable future are not yet readily available or de-risked, necessitating innovative solutions for resource efficiency and alternative material sourcing.

Key Finding

Decarbonising steel by 2050 faces significant hurdles, including resource scarcity, technological and financial risks, and insufficient policy support, leading to an estimated 10% shortfall from net-zero goals. Moreover, current plans largely overlook broader environmental and social impacts beyond CO2.

Key Findings

• Current roadmaps project near-zero emissions by 2050, but fall short of net-zero targets by ~10%.
• Key barriers include: availability of recycled scrap and high-grade iron ore, de-risking technology investment, uncertain demand and cost gaps, availability/affordability/reliability of renewable energy and hydrogen, skilled workforce shortages, weak policy signals, and lack of fair competition regulation.
• Significant sustainability gaps exist, with limited discussion of social and environmental impacts beyond CO2 mitigation, particularly concerning raw material extraction, transport, use, and end-of-life stages.
• Strategic international collaboration and shared responsibility are integral for a just sustainability transition.

Research Evidence

Aim: To critically review global iron and steel decarbonisation roadmaps up to 2050 and identify key barriers and overlooked sustainability impacts.

Method: Critical literature review

Procedure: The researchers analysed existing academic and grey literature on global iron and steel decarbonisation roadmaps, focusing on modelled pathways to 2050. They identified common themes, barriers, and areas of focus, as well as significant omissions in the analysis of broader social and environmental impacts.

Context: Global heavy industry, specifically the iron and steel sector.

Design Principle

Prioritise lifecycle resource stewardship and holistic sustainability in material and process design.

How to Apply

When selecting materials for a design project, research not only their embodied carbon but also the availability and sustainability of their raw material sources, and consider end-of-life scenarios that minimise resource depletion.

Limitations

The analysis is based on existing roadmaps and models, which may not fully capture future technological advancements or unforeseen market shifts. The focus is primarily on CO2 mitigation, with less emphasis on other greenhouse gases or broader environmental and social factors.

Student Guide (IB Design Technology)

Simple Explanation: Making steel without polluting is hard! Current plans are good but won't get us to zero pollution because we don't have enough recycled metal, clean energy, or clear rules. We also need to think more about the impact of mining the raw materials.

Why This Matters: This research shows that achieving environmental goals in manufacturing is complex and requires looking at the whole 'life' of a product's materials, not just one part of the process.

Critical Thinking: Given the identified limitations in current steel decarbonisation roadmaps, what alternative or complementary strategies could designers and engineers explore to achieve truly net-zero outcomes in material-intensive product design?

IA-Ready Paragraph: The decarbonisation of heavy industries like steel production faces significant challenges, with current roadmaps projected to fall short of net-zero targets due to critical resource limitations, technological investment risks, and policy uncertainties. As highlighted by Rumsa et al. (2025), a near-zero emissions goal by 2050 is achievable, but achieving true net-zero requires addressing not only CO2 mitigation but also the broader social and environmental impacts of raw material extraction, transport, use, and end-of-life stages, alongside ensuring the availability of renewable energy and hydrogen.

Project Tips

• When choosing materials, think about where they come from and what happens to them afterwards, not just how they're made.
• Consider how your design can use less material or materials that are easier to recycle or reuse.

How to Use in IA

• Use this research to justify the selection of sustainable materials or processes in your design project, explaining how it addresses the identified resource and lifecycle challenges.

Examiner Tips

• Demonstrate an understanding of the broader resource implications of design choices, not just the immediate functional or aesthetic aspects.

Independent Variable: Analysis of global iron and steel decarbonisation roadmaps

Dependent Variable: Projected emissions reduction by 2050, identified barriers, overlooked sustainability impacts

Strengths

• Comprehensive review of existing literature and roadmaps.
• Identifies critical, often overlooked, sustainability gaps beyond CO2.

Critical Questions

• How can designers influence policy and international collaboration to address the identified barriers?
• What innovative material solutions can mitigate the reliance on scarce or environmentally damaging raw materials?

Extended Essay Application

• Investigate the feasibility of a circular economy model for a specific product, analysing the resource availability and end-of-life management challenges in detail.

Source

Global steel decarbonisation roadmaps: Near-zero by 2050 · Environmental Impact Assessment Review · 2025 · 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.107807