Future Land Use Scenarios Could Increase Global Water Erosion by 10% by 2070

Why It Matters

Understanding the potential impact of future land use on soil erosion is critical for sustainable land management and environmental policy. Designers and engineers involved in agricultural systems, infrastructure development, and environmental restoration need to consider these erosion risks to mitigate negative consequences.

Key Finding

Soil erosion by water is projected to change significantly by 2070, with land use shifts potentially increasing erosion in some scenarios, while climate change is expected to drive a substantial increase in erosion globally.

Key Findings

• Baseline model (2015) predicts global potential soil erosion rates of 23.5 Pg yr⁻¹.
• Current conservation agriculture practices are estimated to reduce erosion by approximately 5%.
• Future scenarios suggest land use changes could decrease erosion (SSP1-RCP2.6) or increase it (SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5) by 2070.
• Climate projections indicate a trend towards a more vigorous hydrological cycle, potentially increasing global water erosion by 30% to 66% across all scenarios.

Research Evidence

Aim: To predict future rates of global soil erosion by water under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios.

Method: Semi-empirical modeling approach (GloSEM based on RUSLE)

Procedure: The study utilized a Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE)-based model (GloSEM) to predict global potential soil erosion by water. This was done under three alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios, considering both land use changes and climate projections for the period 2015-2070.

Context: Global land use and climate change impacts on soil erosion.

Design Principle

Integrate predictive environmental modeling into the design process to anticipate and mitigate future resource degradation.

How to Apply

When designing agricultural practices, land reclamation projects, or water management systems, consider the projected changes in soil erosion rates based on relevant socioeconomic and climate scenarios for the project's location and timeframe.

Limitations

The study focuses on water erosion and excludes gully and river bank erosion. Predictions are subject to uncertainties inherent in socioeconomic and climate models.

Student Guide (IB Design Technology)

Simple Explanation: This study shows that how we use land in the future, along with climate change, could make soil wash away with water much more easily by the year 2070.

Why This Matters: Understanding how future environmental conditions might impact natural resources like soil is crucial for designing sustainable and resilient solutions.

Critical Thinking: How might the uncertainties in future socioeconomic development and climate projections affect the reliability of these erosion predictions for design decision-making?

IA-Ready Paragraph: Research indicates that future land use patterns, influenced by socioeconomic developments, coupled with climate change, are projected to significantly impact global soil erosion by water. For instance, by 2070, certain land use scenarios could increase water erosion, while climate change is expected to drive a substantial rise in erosion rates globally (Borrelli et al., 2020). This highlights the critical need for designs in agriculture and land management to incorporate robust soil conservation strategies to mitigate future environmental degradation.

Project Tips

• When researching a design problem, consider how future environmental changes might affect your design's performance or impact.
• Use scenario-based planning to explore different potential futures for your design context.

How to Use in IA

• Reference this study when discussing the environmental context of your design project, particularly if it relates to land use, agriculture, or water management.
• Use the projected erosion rates to justify the need for specific design features aimed at soil conservation or erosion mitigation.

Examiner Tips

• Demonstrate an understanding of how global environmental trends can influence local design challenges.
• Show how you have considered future-proofing your design against potential environmental degradation.

Independent Variable: ["Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios (representing land use and climate change)","Conservation agriculture practices"]

Dependent Variable: ["Global potential soil erosion rates by water (Pg yr⁻¹)"]

Controlled Variables: ["The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE)-based modeling approach (GloSEM)","The baseline year (2015)"]

Strengths

• Global spatial resolution of the modeling approach.
• Inclusion of multiple future socioeconomic and climate scenarios.

Critical Questions

• What are the primary drivers of land use change within each SSP-RCP scenario, and how might these drivers be influenced by design interventions?
• How can design solutions be adapted to be resilient to the projected increases in water erosion across different regions?

Extended Essay Application

• Investigate the impact of specific land management techniques (e.g., terracing, cover cropping) on soil erosion rates under projected climate change scenarios for a particular region.
• Develop a design proposal for an agricultural system that minimizes soil erosion and maximizes water retention, considering future environmental conditions.

Source

Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 2020 · 10.1073/pnas.2001403117