Fossil-Fueled Development Triples Energy Demand and Emissions by 2100
Category: Resource Management · Effect: Strong effect · Year: 2016
A high-growth, fossil-fuel-dependent development pathway (SSP5) projects a tripling of global energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the century.
Design Takeaway
Designers should proactively develop solutions that decouple economic growth from fossil fuel consumption and resource depletion, anticipating a future with potentially much higher energy demands if current trends continue.
Why It Matters
This projection highlights the critical need for designers and engineers to consider the long-term resource implications of current design choices. Understanding these intensive resource demands is crucial for developing sustainable solutions and mitigating environmental impact.
Key Finding
A development path heavily reliant on fossil fuels could lead to a threefold increase in global energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions by 2100, alongside a doubling of food demand.
Key Findings
- SSP5 projects up to a doubling of global food demand.
- SSP5 projects up to a tripling of global energy demand by 2100.
- SSP5 projects up to a tripling of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2100.
- SSP5 represents an upper-bound scenario for energy and emissions in current literature.
- Mitigation policies are accessible within SSP5, though socio-economic challenges to mitigation are high.
Research Evidence
Aim: What are the projected energy and resource demands under a rapid, fossil-fuel-intensive development scenario for the 21st century?
Method: Integrated Assessment Modelling
Procedure: The REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework was used to develop and analyze a set of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), with a specific focus on the SSP5 scenario characterized by rapid, fossil-fueled development.
Context: Global socio-economic and environmental futures modelling
Design Principle
Design for resource efficiency and a transition away from fossil fuels to meet escalating global demands.
How to Apply
When designing products or systems, consider their energy consumption and material lifecycle in the context of projected future resource availability and demand.
Limitations
The accuracy of long-term projections is subject to numerous assumptions about technological advancement, policy implementation, and societal behavior.
Student Guide (IB Design Technology)
Simple Explanation: Imagine a future where we use three times more energy and create three times more pollution because we keep relying on old energy sources. This research shows how that could happen.
Why This Matters: Understanding these future resource demands helps you make design choices now that are more sustainable and responsible for the planet.
Critical Thinking: How might a designer's choices today influence whether we move towards a high-demand, fossil-fuel-dependent future or a more sustainable one?
IA-Ready Paragraph: The SSP5 scenario, as outlined by Kriegler et al. (2016), projects a significant escalation in global resource demands, with energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions potentially tripling by 2100 due to a fossil-fuel-intensive development path. This highlights the critical need for design projects to prioritize resource efficiency and explore low-carbon alternatives to mitigate future environmental pressures.
Project Tips
- When researching materials, consider their energy cost to produce and their potential for recycling.
- When designing a product, think about how much energy it will use over its entire life.
How to Use in IA
- Use the projected increases in energy and resource demand as a justification for exploring alternative, more sustainable design solutions in your project.
Examiner Tips
- Demonstrate an understanding of the broader environmental and resource context in which your design project operates.
Independent Variable: Development pathway (e.g., fossil-fuel intensive vs. sustainable)
Dependent Variable: Global energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions, food demand
Controlled Variables: Socio-economic factors, technological advancement assumptions, policy scenarios
Strengths
- Utilizes a sophisticated integrated assessment modeling framework.
- Provides a high-end reference scenario for comparison with other future pathways.
Critical Questions
- What are the ethical implications of designing for a high-resource-consumption future?
- How can design actively steer society away from such intensive scenarios?
Extended Essay Application
- Investigate the potential impact of specific design innovations (e.g., advanced battery technology, circular economy models) on mitigating the resource demands projected by scenarios like SSP5.
Source
Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century · Global Environmental Change · 2016 · 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.015