Cobalt Shortage Inevitable for EV Transition by 2033, Even with Optimistic Tech

Why It Matters

This insight highlights a critical bottleneck in the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. Designers and engineers must consider material sourcing and potential supply chain disruptions when developing new products and systems, as technological optimism alone may not be sufficient to overcome resource limitations.

Key Finding

While future battery innovations and recycling are promising for long-term cobalt availability, a critical shortage is still expected within the next decade, affecting different regions unevenly.

Key Findings

• Cobalt-free batteries and recycling progress can significantly alleviate long-term cobalt supply risks.
• A cobalt supply shortage is projected to be inevitable in the short- to medium-term (2028-2033), even under the most technologically optimistic scenarios.
• Cobalt supply security levels vary by region, underscoring the urgency of increasing primary cobalt supply.

Research Evidence

Aim: To assess the extent to which battery technology advancements and recycling efforts will alleviate global and regional cobalt demand-supply imbalances for electric mobility.

Method: Simulation modeling

Procedure: The study simulated historical (1998-2019) and future (2020-2050) global cobalt cycles, incorporating both traditional and emerging end uses with regional resolution for key economic areas.

Context: Electric mobility transition, battery material supply chains

Design Principle

Anticipate and mitigate critical material supply chain risks through material diversification, substitution, and circular economy principles.

How to Apply

When designing electric vehicles or related infrastructure, conduct a thorough risk assessment of critical material availability, considering projected shortages and regional disparities. Explore design alternatives that reduce reliance on cobalt or incorporate higher percentages of recycled content.

Limitations

The study's projections are based on simulated scenarios and technological optimism, and actual outcomes may vary due to unforeseen market dynamics, geopolitical events, or the pace of technological adoption.

Student Guide (IB Design Technology)

Simple Explanation: Even if we get better at making batteries without cobalt and recycling old ones, we're still going to run out of cobalt for electric cars for a few years around 2030.

Why This Matters: Understanding material constraints helps you design more realistic and sustainable products that can actually be manufactured and adopted.

Critical Thinking: How might a designer or engineer influence policy or industry practices to mitigate the projected cobalt shortage, beyond just technological solutions?

IA-Ready Paragraph: Research indicates that even with advancements in battery technology and recycling, a significant shortage of critical materials like cobalt is projected for the electric mobility transition between 2028 and 2033. This highlights the importance of proactive material selection and lifecycle planning in design projects to ensure feasibility and sustainability.

Project Tips

• When choosing materials for your design project, research their availability and potential future shortages.
• Consider how your design can be made with fewer rare or critical materials.
• Investigate how your product could be recycled or reused at the end of its life.

How to Use in IA

• Reference this study when discussing the material choices for your design, particularly if your project involves electric vehicles or battery technology.
• Use the projected shortage timeline to justify your design decisions regarding material selection or alternative solutions.

Examiner Tips

• Demonstrate an understanding of the real-world constraints of material sourcing and supply chains.
• Show how you have considered the long-term viability and sustainability of your material choices.

Independent Variable: ["Advancements in cobalt-free battery technology","Progress in battery recycling rates"]

Dependent Variable: ["Global cobalt demand-supply imbalance","Cobalt supply security levels by region"]

Controlled Variables: ["Historical cobalt cycles","End uses of cobalt (traditional and emerging)","Regional resolution (China, US, Japan, EU, Rest of World)"]

Strengths

• Provides a quantitative simulation of future material supply.
• Includes regional analysis, highlighting diverse impacts.
• Considers multiple strategies (tech and recycling) for mitigation.

Critical Questions

• What are the geopolitical implications of regional variations in cobalt supply security?
• How can design choices influence the demand for cobalt in the short-term, even before new technologies are widely adopted?

Extended Essay Application

• Investigate the feasibility of designing a product that uses significantly less cobalt or is entirely cobalt-free, and analyze the supply chain implications.
• Explore the potential for innovative recycling processes for cobalt-containing batteries and their economic viability.

Source

Battery technology and recycling alone will not save the electric mobility transition from future cobalt shortages · Nature Communications · 2022 · 10.1038/s41467-022-29022-z